Risk Posture Composite
The market's aggregate appetite for risk.
RSKP synthesizes cross-asset risk signals into a single regime indicator — measuring whether the market's overall posture is risk-on or risk-off across equities, credit, FX, and commodities.
The Risk Posture Composite (RSKP) measures aggregate risk appetite across global markets by synthesizing signals from equity volatility, credit spreads, currency safe-haven flows, commodity momentum, and capital flows. It summarizes whether the market's current posture is 'risk-on' (capital moving toward higher-return assets) or 'risk-off' (capital moving toward safety). RSKP is a measurement of the current cross-asset regime.
The VIX measures 30-day implied volatility priced into S&P 500 options — it is US-equity-centric. RSKP is broader: it incorporates equity and volatility signals (the VIX among them) alongside credit, rates, and cross-asset confirmation inputs. They often move together, but when stress shows up first in credit or in cross-asset confirmation, RSKP reflects signals equity-implied volatility alone does not. The full input set is published on the RSKP methodology page.
RSKP below 35 classifies as 'Risk-Off,' 35–55 as 'Neutral,' and above 55 as 'Risk-On.' Readings above 75 classify as an extreme risk-on posture. These bands describe where the composite sits today; MarketSchema does not attach a probability of reversal or a forecast of future returns to any band.
RSKP is calculated daily from end-of-day market data across its component inputs. Because it aggregates across asset classes, it dampens some of the intraday noise present in single indicators like the VIX. It is constructed to describe regime over multi-week horizons rather than as a daily trading signal.
By construction, low-RSKP (risk-off) readings coincide with strength in traditional safe havens — long-duration Treasuries, gold, USD, JPY, and defensive equity sectors — while high-RSKP (risk-on) readings coincide with strength in cyclical equities, high-yield credit, EM assets, commodities, and crypto. RSKP measures the regime; it does not tell you what to buy or sell. Any positioning decision is the reader's to make.