Loading Narratives
Scoring active market narratives across all indices.
Loading Narratives
Scoring active market narratives across all indices.
Two themes are driving markets right now: CRE Refinancing Wall (94, strengthening) and EM Stress (85, elevated).
M CRE Refinancing Wall Real Assets | 94 | Strengthening | +0.0 | 2 | 5/5 | 0 | 63 | ||
H Credit Tightening Credit | 81 | Tightening | +0.0 | 2 | 5/5 | 0 | 57 | ||
M War / Oil Shock Macro | 81 | Strengthening | +0.0 | 18 | 6/6 | 0 | 57 | ||
H Iran War Macro | 76 | Escalating | +0.0 | 14 | 7/7 | 0 | 55 | ||
H EM Stress International | 85 | Elevated | +0.0 | 6 | 4/5 | 0 | 54 | ||
T Soft Landing Macro | 72 | Intact | +0.0 | 2 | 6/6 | 0 | 54 | ||
H Power Bottleneck Real Assets | 56 | Mixed | +0.0 | 3 | 4/4 | 0 | 47 | ||
T AI Infra Tech | 50 | Mixed | +0.0 | 16 | 5/5 | 0 | 45 | ||
H Japan Carry Rates | 59 | Mixed | +0.0 | 0 | 4/5 | 0 | 44 | ||
T Disinflation Rates | 45 | Mixed | +0.0 | 0 | 4/4 | 0 | 43 | ||
H Debasement Macro | 78 | Rising | +0.0 | 2 | 5/5 | 0 | 41 | ||
M Crypto Liquidity Regime Crypto | 30 | Fragile | +0.0 | 1 | 5/5 | 0 | 37 |
CRE Refinancing Wall
Real Assets
Credit Tightening
Credit
War / Oil Shock
Macro
Iran War
Macro
EM Stress
International
Soft Landing
Macro
Power Bottleneck
Real Assets
AI Infra
Tech
Japan Carry
Rates
Disinflation
Rates
Debasement
Macro
Crypto Liquidity Regime
Crypto
Why these themes matter
Each theme is built from MarketSchema's index system. When a theme strengthens or weakens, it changes how supportive the backdrop is for the assets tied to it across stocks, commodities, rates, and crypto.
Breakdown Watch
No narratives are near breakdown — the current narrative set is stable.
Reinforcing Clusters
When these fire together, broad risk-off positioning strengthens. Currently active.
Compute demand and energy bottleneck reinforce capital spending urgency. Currently moderate — watching for acceleration.
Commodities and hard assets benefit from concurrent energy and debasement pressure. Currently active.
Tensions
if credit wins, the landing fails — Credit Tightening (81) leads over Soft Landing (72).
hard assets and deflation can't both be right — Debasement (78) leads over Disinflation (45).
if financing dries up, the buildout stalls — Credit Tightening (81) leads over AI Infra (50).
sanctions-driven oil shock kills the disinflation thesis — Iran War (76) leads over Disinflation (45).
regional war and sanctions derail the soft-landing path — Iran War (76) leads over Soft Landing (72).
| Narrative | Equities | Commodities | Rates & FX | Real Estate | Crypto |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRE Refinancing Wall94 | — | — | — | — | — |
| EM Stress85 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Credit Tightening81 | — | — | — | — | — |
| War / Oil Shock81 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Debasement78 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Iran War76 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Soft Landing72 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Japan Carry59 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Power Bottleneck56 | — | — | — | — | — |
| AI Infra50 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Disinflation45 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Crypto Liquidity Regime30 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Pressure | — | — | — | — | — |
Looking for what narratives affect a specific asset? View assets →
Pushing Defensive
Net Narrative Pressure
Defensive(1 tailwind vs 8 headwinds, -188 net)Pushing Risk-On
Each narrative is built from weighted index drivers. A driver's z-score is directionally adjusted (pro = as-is, anti = inverted), passed through a sigmoid function (tanh), and multiplied by its weight. The weighted sum produces a raw score mapped to 0–100 (50 = neutral).
Evidence measures how many drivers show strong conviction (|z| ≥ 0.70σ). Confidence = min(coverage, coherence, freshness). Momentum = current score minus historical score at each horizon.
Triage roles: Core (score ≥ 65, solid evidence) · Emerging (score 45-64) · Fragile (invalidation > 50% proximity) · Dormant (score < 45)
Every market narrative has specific conditions that would invalidate it. MarketSchema continuously monitors these "invalidation checks" — when the underlying signals approach the invalidation threshold, the narrative moves into the Fragile category.
Proximity measures how close a narrative is to breaking: 0% = no risk, 100% = thesis invalidated. The Breakdown Watch section surfaces all narratives where any check exceeds 25% proximity.
This is MarketSchema's edge: we don't just tell you the narrative — we tell you what would end it.
Pillars are the 8 structural categories (Liquidity, Credit, Rates, Growth, Dollar, Energy, Risk, Infrastructure) that compose the market conditions. They're always-on — think of them as what's happening.
Narratives are cross-cutting themes — like "Credit Tightening" or "AI Buildout" — that pull drivers from multiple pillars. They can be active or dormant. Think of them as why it matters.