Each narrative is built from weighted index drivers. A driver's z-score is directionally adjusted (pro = as-is, anti = inverted), passed through a sigmoid function (tanh), and multiplied by its weight. The weighted sum produces a raw score mapped to 0–100 (50 = neutral).

Evidence measures how many drivers show strong conviction (|z| ≥ 0.70σ). Confidence = min(coverage, coherence, freshness). Momentum = current score minus historical score at each horizon.

Triage roles: Core (score ≥ 65, solid evidence) · Emerging (score 45-64) · Fragile (invalidation > 50% proximity) · Dormant (score < 45)

Every market narrative has specific conditions that would invalidate it. MarketSchema continuously monitors these "invalidation checks" — when the underlying signals approach the invalidation threshold, the narrative moves into the Fragile category.

Proximity measures how close a narrative is to breaking: 0% = no risk, 100% = thesis invalidated. The Breakdown Watch section surfaces all narratives where any check exceeds 25% proximity.

This is MarketSchema's edge: we don't just tell you the narrative — we tell you what would end it.