Real Estate Financial Index
The mortgage market is the canary for credit cycles.
REFI measures financial conditions in the US real estate market — combining mortgage rates, refinancing activity, home price momentum, and housing credit availability into a single regime indicator.
The Real Estate Financial Index (REFI) measures financing conditions in US housing and commercial real estate, aggregating inputs across mortgage rates, Treasury yields, credit, lending conditions, and broader stress signals. A high REFI reading indicates tighter real estate financing conditions; a low reading indicates looser conditions with easier credit access. The exact inputs and the formula are published on the REFI methodology page.
Real estate is deeply interconnected with the financial system and the real economy. Residential real estate is the largest single asset for most US households, so home-price dynamics are central to consumer wealth. Commercial real estate affects bank balance sheets, particularly regional banks with concentrated CRE exposure. Mortgage-credit conditions feed through to construction, employment, and spending. REFI measures the current state of these financial conditions.
REFI is sensitive to interest rates because mortgages are a primary transmission channel of Fed policy into household finances. When the Fed raises rates, mortgage rates typically rise with a lag, reducing affordability and refinancing incentive. REFI tracks not just the rate level but the pace of change and its effect on transaction volumes and credit availability. It measures current real estate financial conditions; MarketSchema does not publish a forecast or a fixed lead-time versus housing data.